From resources to retail Unpacking the JSE’s 2023 market movers

Brave investors who piled into Harmony Gold at levels under R60 a share a year ago were richly rewarded. The stock is the only one in the Top 40 (and the only liquid counter across the entire JSE) to have delivered a triple-digit return in 2023.

According to data in Moneyweb’s Company stats feature (available to Insider Gold subscribers), its share price was up 103% over last year.

No other Top 40 shares got close, with the next best performer up just less than 60%.

Resources is where the money was made – and lost – last year.

Two gold shares were among the best 10 performers in the Top 40, while half of the bottom 10 were resource stocks (a full six out of 10 if Sasol is included).

Performance in this sector diverged widely. Two gold stocks shot the lights out, the other was up 7%.

Only BHP from the global diversified miners delivered a positive performance in the year. Glencore ended slightly lower while South32 and Anglo-American were in the bottom 10 in the Top 40.

Anglo’s lacklustre year (down nearly 30%) is due to just how dominant Anglo-American Platinum (Amplats) is in its portfolio.

Platinum miners (Amplats, Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum) were the three worst performers in the bourse’s 40 largest shares. All were down by more than 30%.

The price of platinum group metals (PGMs) fell by more than 40% in the year, with rhodium down by two-thirds and palladium by a third.

Among the next largest shares on the JSE, resources and real estate investment trusts (Reits) are the bulk of the underperformers.

Pick n Pay, however, is the bottom-performing stock in the Top 100 as a whole. It was down 59% last year, following a sales slump at its core Pick n Pay unit that saw the forced exit of Pieter Boone. Even the reappointment of veteran Sean Summers as CEO has failed to excite the market, with shares still trading at their lowest levels since 2005.

MultiChoice was down over 30% last year, masked by a decent rebound from the low of R63 a share reached in November (miles away from its highest point in the year, recorded in March, of over R144).

In terms of best returns, these are mostly a weak rand story, with six of the 10 best performers either dual listings or companies that derive most or all of their earnings offshore.

The rand lost 7.5% of its value against the dollar last year and performed even worse against the euro (-11%) and pound (-13%).

Truworths, ADvTech and HCI bucked the trend. The last of these has had two extraordinary years in a row on the back of speculation about its effective 10% stake in an exploration block off the coast of Namibia.

Further down the ranking tables (companies with market capitalisations of R9 billion and below), there were very strong performances by some fairly sizeable companies, many of which are retail investors’ favourites.

PPC’s recovery continued and investors continued to buy. The stock was up 83% in 2023.

Investors began to take notice of CA Sales, which was effectively unbundled from PSG Group when it delisted – it was up 61%. WBHO and Spur Corporation were both up over 45% in the year.

The stunning decline in Transaction Capital’s share price from its peak – now with a market cap of under R6 billion – has been well documented on Moneyweb.

There has been some rebound from the lows in September and October, but it still declined 76% in the year.

EOH’s stuttering turnaround labours on, with investors likely growing less patient (down 58%).

Purple Group was down by a similar amount, while ArcelorMittal South Africa ended 2023 down 65%.

With the JSE returning 5% for last year and the decreasing number of equities listed on the bourse, the year ahead may well be another where stock pickers outperform …